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With easiest remaining schedule, can Bucs make a push?
For once in a long time in Week 10, it felt like things were finally going to go the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' way.
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Winless since Oct. 13, they were down 20-17 against the San Francisco 49ers and got the ball back at their own 34-yard line with 3:09 to go after Niners kicker Jake Moody missed his third field goal of the game.
The Bucs (4-6) were able to advance the ball down to the San Francisco 5-yard line after being aided by four 49ers' penalties.
"On that last drive, we finally got some calls our way," Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield said. "It took until the fourth quarter and the last drive to get it, but yeah, I thought we had it."
On second-and-goal, Niners defensive tackle Evan Anderson plowed his way past center Graham Barton on a stunt and drove running Rachaad White backwards for a 3-yard loss. Then a third-and-goal from the 8-yard line, Mayfield's pass to wide receiver Rakim Jarrett was knocked down, forcing the Bucs to settle for a field goal from Chase McLaughlin to make it 20-20.
Both Mayfield and coach Todd Bowles said that going for it on fourth-and-9 wasn't even a consideration with that type of down and distance. But the game slipped away from them seconds later, just as it had six days earlier on "Monday Night Football" in overtime at the Kansas City Chiefs, and in Week 5 in overtime at the Atlanta Falcons.
The Niners got the ball back with 41 seconds left, and with starting cornerback Zyon McCollum leaving the game with a hamstring injury (the Bucs had already been without their other starter Jamel Dean since Week 7), Brock Purdy completed four consecutive passes before Moody kicked a 44-yard field goal to seal the win, handing the Bucs their fourth straight loss.
"It feels s---ty," inside linebacker and team captain Lavonte David said. "You know what I'm saying? It's in our hands. As a defensive captain of this football team, I'm out there -- I'm not doing enough, everybody's not doing enough. So whatever it is, we gotta dig deep and find it...whatever it is, we gotta fix it asap."
The Bucs are the only team to have three losses this season when they were tied or led in the final 15 seconds, according to ESPN Research.
"[We] have to finish ballgames," Bowles said. "[When] guys get a chance to play, they have to come in, play and execute. We can't play hard and then not play smart at the end. We have to play smarter football. There's nothing wrong with how hard we're playing and how tough we're playing, but we have to finish games. We have to find a way to finish ballgames. [We're] making too many mistakes at the end."
But it wasn't just Barton allowing too much penetration on that tackle for a loss, which he took the blame for. It's things like Josh Hayes' illegal formation penalty within the final minute, and him celebrating a pass breakup on Jauan Jennings before surrendering an 11-yard touchdown to George Kittle on the very next play. It's having nobody in the middle of the field seeming able to make a tackle, whether it's linebackers K.J. Britt or J.J. Russell, or safeties Jordan Whitehead or Antoine Winfield Jr.
It's not having any threat of a downfield passing game without franchise all-time leading scorer Mike Evans, whom expects to be back after their Week 11 bye. The Bucs do have some capable weapons in Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer, Ryan Miller and Jarrett, and tight end Cade Otton has been a bright spot, but it hasn't been enough.
It's also the Bucs staying pat at the trade deadline when they could have used help at receiver, cornerback, inside linebacker and pass rusher, knowing that Mayfield is having the best statistical year of his career. It's that they loaded up on nickelbacks and made them backup safeties, but rolled the dice with their youth at outside corner this offseason, and that youth is learning some hard, painful lessons that has cost them games -- like Hayes surrendering two crucial touchdowns against the Chiefs.
"We don't need any new players," Bowles said. "No doubt about it. If we stop making mistakes that we're making, we're in every game at the end. We have to turn it around and turn those losses in to wins."
But as a head coach, what else can he say?
Still, they've been here before and this isn't insurmountable. Tampa was 4-7 last year before winning five out of six to get above .500. They were even 6-8 in Tom Brady's final year -- 2022 -- in Week 15. Still, the Bucs needed a tiebreaker to win the division last season over the New Orleans Saints, and no team in the division had a winning record in 2022.
But this year is different. The Falcons (6-5) have already swept the Bucs in their head-to-head matchups, so Tampa may have to rely on fighting for a wild-card spot instead of an automatic berth into the playoffs by winning the conference -- a first since 2020.
"We may have changed who we were," Bowles said when asked about what clicked at the end of last season. "We [started] making less mistakes. ... That's really all there is to it."
Along with Evans, Dean could be back for Week 12. The hope on McCollum's hamstring injury is that it's just a tweak and he'll be fine after the bye. And there's Tristan Wirfs. The All-Pro left tackle sprained his MCL in his right knee against the 49ers, and the team hopes he will miss minimal time.
It'll be all hands on deck, or as Mayfield said, "We're gonna be full throttle" and "these guys gotta be ready to roll."
Things should be easier for the Bucs though. They have the easiest remaining schedule, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
They can also stand to benefit from what ESPN Research said is the NFL's easiest remaining schedule, where they have just one opponent with a winning record after the bye week in the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3), and first up will be the New York Giants (2-8) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox). The only down side to the schedule is that the Falcons have second-easiest remaining schedule.
"We're gonna need everything we possibly have down the road, one day at a time in practice and then games," David said. "We've just gotta put it together."
Bowles used the word "recalibrate" multiple times when asked about how they'll spend the week, aside from just the league-mandated off days. He emphasized that it's not "doom and gloom," but they do have a litany of injured players that need the rest. The coaches will self-scout, and as Bowles put it, "come up with better plans" and "do some things to get ready for the stretch run."
Bowles is also planning to meet with team ownership. Like last year, there are expectations that the team will rebound this second half of the season. The staff has shown it can evolve, between things like the offense shifting towards a very run-heavy look without Evans and Godwin to finding a way to get McCollum on the field when starters Carlton Davis and Dean returned from injury because of how well he played in their absence last season.
Regardless of what changes the coaches come up with -- if any -- David said it's on the players to correct.
"Just look ourselves in the mirror, and ask yourself what type of player you want to be," David said. "This team needs those - we need elite players at the end of the day. We need players who make plays and do it consistently and that's what we're not doing, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Whoever's out there, we're not making enough plays, and we have to be better at that."