The frustratingly low odds of a successful onside kick may not be a problem for long

BarDown Staff

Younghoe Koo , (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There’s nothing like a good comeback victory in sports. Whether it’s a 3^rd period goal flurry in hockey, a 9^th inning grand slam in baseball, or a buzzer-beater to complete the unthinkable in basketball… Give us all the drama.

In football, dramatic comebacks also exist. Just ask the Atlanta Falcons or the Los Angeles Chargers if you want to see the painful side of that fact. Saying that, there’s one rule that stands pretty significantly in the way of more unlikely, improbable, get-you-out-of-your-seat comebacks – the onside kick.

The onside kick is so frustrating because it’s so unlikely that you’ll be able to pull it off. Heading into this season, the odds of recovering an onside kick stood at about 6%. That is frustratingly low for teams down by more than one score late in the game, because even if they’re able to accomplish most of the unthinkable, the fate often just lies in happening to pull off an onside kick.

A rule change was proposed by the Denver Broncos ahead of the season in which the onside kick would be replaced by a 4^th and 15 scenario. Still very hard to pull off, but not nearly as tough as an onside kick. It could be argued that converting this scenario would be more “earned” than an onside kick happening to get the bounces needed for recovery.

In the end, this was the result of the proposal.

NFL owners have tabled the 4th-and-15 alternative to the onside kick, I’m told. Further discussion needed.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 28, 2020

There was no official vote on the 4th-and-15 proposal, but they did take a (virtual) show of hands and it did not have the support to pass at this time. A bold idea that would've needed 24 of 32 votes. Expect it to come up again. https://t.co/XRuJBIlEG9
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 28, 2020

Because the proposal was tabled rather than officially voted upon, those hoping to abolish the onside kick did not have their hopes fully extinguished. Now, fast forward five and a half months, and that hope is once again growing.

Speaking with Pro Football Talk, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell explained that it is something that he, the league, and teams would like to keep discussing.

An excerpt from Pro Football Talk:

“It is something we have thought, and many clubs have thought, would be an exciting addition to the game, and something I think merits a lot of discussion,” Goodell said.

While lots of fans would welcome the odd-shifting that would come with a rule replacement of this nature, others may argue that teams that have dug themselves deep enough into a hole may not deserve anything more than an absolute miracle to escape.

For us at BarDown, we say let’s turn up the Drama Dial. Onside kicks can kick rocks!

…Onside.

(H/T Pro Football Talk)