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Ranking the Patriots' biggest needs entering NFL free agency
The NFL's legal negotiating period for free agency begins Monday at noon ET, giving the Patriots an opportunity to begin filling critical needs across a roster badly in need of a boost.
ESPN
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FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Quick-hit thoughts and notes around the New England Patriots and NFL:
1. Ranking needs: The NFL's legal negotiating period for free agency begins Monday at noon ET, giving the Patriots an opportunity to begin filling critical needs across a roster badly in need of a boost.
With a league-high $129 million in salary cap space, per Roster Management System, they have flexibility to maneuver and cash to spend. That sets up a scenario where this could play out similar to 2021, when the organization was active at the top of the market in signing Matthew Judon, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith and Davon Godchaux to lucrative deals.
First-year head coach Mike Vrabel said the Patriots plan to be aggressive but will also be prepared to pivot to other options as free agency evolves, because part of it is out of their control.
To set the stage, here is a rundown of the team's needs -- ranked from top to bottom and who the top free agent is at every position, courtesy of ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen's top 100 free agent list.
I. Offensive line: Left tackle stands out as returning starter Vederian Lowe had an 86.3% pass block win rate (No. 49 in NFL). In the ideal scenario, Mike Onwenu (team-high $21 million cap charge) returns to form and locks in at right guard.
But with five spots on the line, there are five question marks at this point. Protecting promising quarterback Drake Maye's blind side should be among the top priorities.
Bowen's top free agent: Minnesota Vikings LT Cam Robinson
Backup possibility: Pittsburgh Steelers LT Dan Moore Jr., Baltimore Ravens G Patrick Mekari
II. Defensive line: Christian Barmore has been working out in Tampa as he hopes to return from being diagnosed with blood clots, but there is no certainty on his availability. The Patriots are also prepared to move on from veteran starter Godchaux. So there's major work to do at this spot, which scouts say is one of the deepest positions in the draft. It would help if 2023 second-round pick Keion White can recapture past promise.
Bowen's top free agents: Philadelphia Eagles DT Milton Williams and LB/DE Josh Sweat
Backup possibility: Detroit Lions DE Levi Onwuzurike, Indianapolis Colts DE Dayo Odeyingbo
III. Wide receiver: Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker are the top returnees, with the position accounting for just $14.04 million of the team's cap space (minus-48% compared to the league average). Room for a big swing here.
Bowen's top free agent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin
Backup possibility: Tennessee Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
IV. Linebacker: Ja'Whaun Bentley, Anfernee Jennings and Jahlani Tavai, who account for $16.8 million of the team's $22.4 million in cap space at the position, all have produced in the NFL, but there's question of how they'll fit in Terrell Williams' new attacking scheme. That makes linebacker a bit of a wild card in terms of how aggressive the team might be in filling it.
Bowen's top free agent: San Francisco 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw
Backup possibility: New York Jets LB Jamien Sherwood
V. Cornerback: Christian Gonzalez locks down the No. 1 spot, with uncertainty on who starts opposite him. Veteran Jonathan Jones is arguably the team's top free agent and could return, while third-year player Alex Austin bears watching as he finished 2024 on a high note. Marcus Jones remains a top slot option. Gonzalez is eligible for an extension at this time next year, which is worth keeping in mind for how the team approaches the position this offseason.
Bowen's top free agent: Jets CB D.J. Reed
Backup possibility: Lions CB Carlton Davis III
VI. Running back: Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson return at the top of the depth chart, with 2024 undrafted free agent Terrell Jennings vying for a roster spot. A true "passing back" in the mold of James White -- which has long been a staple of coordinator Josh McDaniels' offense -- is a void. Scouts view running back as one of the deepest positions in the draft.
Bowen's top free agent: Vikings RB Aaron Jones
Backup possibility: Las Vegas Raiders RB Ameer Abdullah
VII. Tight end: Hunter Henry, 30, is back on the second year of his three-year, $27 million pact, with Jaheim Bell, Jack Westover and Giovanni Ricci behind him. Veteran Austin Hooper is a free agent who had been drawn to New England last year to play in former coordinator Alex Van Pelt's offense, and the door hasn't completely closed on his return this season.
Bowen's top free agent: Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram
Backup possibility: Chicago Bears TE Gerald Everett
VIII. Safety: After spending big-money extensions on Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers, the Patriots are committed to $25.9 million in cap space at the position in 2025 (which puts them in the 89th percentile). That makes it more likely they won't spend big on depth behind them, with 2024 undrafted free agent Dell Pettus one of last season's surprise contributors.
Bowen's top free agent: Miami Dolphins S Jevon Holland
Backup possibility: Colts S Julian Blackmon, Raiders S Tre'von Moehrig
IX. Quarterback: Maye and Joe Milton III form a promising 1-2 combination. It is good business to continue to feed the pipeline in the draft each year. A veteran No. 3 option is also a consideration.
Bowen's top free agent: Vikings QB Sam Darnold
Backup possibility: Dallas Cowboys QB Trey Lance
Needless to say, the Patriots have a lot of work to do, but if there's a silver lining, it is that quarterback is ranked at the bottom. Now the challenge is to build around Maye and be prepared to adapt as the market evolves.
"We need to improve the roster," executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf said last month at the combine. "It's not where we need it to be. I think everybody's aware of that."
2. Cash rankings: With the NFL set to officially turn the page to the 2025 league year this week, it closes the book on teams' cash spending last season. The 49ers were the NFL's highest cash-spending team in 2024 at $341,759,128, according to Roster Management System, which serves as a reminder that cash -- while important -- doesn't guarantee wins (six for San Francisco).
The Patriots' cash spending rankings over the past four seasons:
- 2021: 3rd, $222,516,850
- 2022: 26th, $191,764,559
- 2023: 30th, $188,461,141
- 2024: 18th, $246,175,475
3. Campbell follow-up: How much does 3/8 of an inch matter to the Patriots? That is a hot-button question when it comes to LSU offensive lineman Will Campbell, who has been among the players most connected to them with the No. 4 overall pick (assuming Penn State's Abdul Carter and Colorado's Travis Hunter are off the board).
Campbell, a left tackle whom scouts have described as having elite intangibles and toughness that reflect Vrabel's vision for his team, had his arm length measured at 32⅝ at the combine last week.
"The magical number for offensive tackles for a lot of NFL teams is 33 inches," ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid explained. "So there's going to be some teams that immediately push him inside to guard, and there will be other teams that are fine trying him out at tackle.
"I've always had the belief that if a guy has predominantly played tackle, and had success at tackle, you can try him out at tackle and allow him to show you that he's not capable of doing at the NFL level before you slide him inside."
For his part, Reid has long viewed Campbell as a guard in the NFL. "I think he can be a perfectly fine tackle, but I think he can be a Pro Bowl-level guard," he said.
If the Patriots agree, the question then becomes if No. 4 is too rich to take a Pro Bowl-level guard, which is considered a less valuable position than tackle (as NFL salaries reflect).
4. Wallace plan: While nothing is set in stone, some of the team-based discussion surrounding Patriots 2024 third-round pick Caedan Wallace has been about initially giving him a chance to settle in at right tackle, according to a team source.
Wallace played mostly right tackle at Penn State, but the Patriots envisioned him flipping sides and helping fill a major void at left tackle last year. It never happened, and Wallace's development was further stunted when he sustained a high ankle sprain in Week 4.
The Patriots' projection with Wallace last year has some similarities to Missouri's Armand Membou, who is a likely 2025 first-round pick and played primarily right tackle in college, so there's an element of the unknown for those considering him on the left side.
5. Deatrich's change: Longtime Patriots defensive lineman Deatrich Wise Jr., who spent the first eight years of his career in New England, has hired Drew Rosenhaus as his new agent. Wise's nearby lockermate Godchaux is also represented by Rosenhaus (and has been given permission to seek a trade).
With the Patriots under a new Vrabel-led regime, and switching to an attacking defensive system, Wise's fit is harder to project compared to the last time he was an unrestricted free agent (2021) and re-signed. Prior to Wise's agent switch, indications were that his return was a longer-odds scenario.
6. Sow's forgotten season: After starting 13 games as a rookie in 2023 when the Patriots selected him in the fourth round out of Eastern Michigan, guard Sidy Sow fell out of favor last season (1 start, 155 total snaps). Sustaining a sprained ankle in the preseason didn't help his cause.
For what it's worth, Sow has been one of the few players who has consistently been showing up at Gillette Stadium this offseason before the voluntary offseason program begins April 7, working out in hopes of a Year 3 rebound.
7. They said it: "In the NFL, you're not allowed to use technology during the game and on the sideline, so where you're seeing technology and artificial intelligence is in pre-scouting an opponent. This is more machine learning than generative AI, because you want to understand how your head coach wants to play. But having algorithms that look at the opponent, and when they start game-planning, they can lay out the things they might want to focus on and most pertinent to how they think. It condenses the time that used to go into game-planning." -- Patriots president Jonathan Kraft, on how evolving analytics and technology can be used by teams, at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference
8. No numbers at UNC: A staple of Bill Belichick's time in New England was on display during his first spring practices as head coach at University of North Carolina, as players didn't have numbers or names on their jerseys. The NFL ultimately changed its rules in 2016, which stopped Belichick from doing so, but there are no such rules for college football.
9. Here's the kicker: With incumbent kicker Joey Slye an unrestricted free agent, and no movement toward a deal, the Patriots currently plan to move forward with John Parker Romo as their lone kicker under contract before likely adding competition in the coming weeks/months, according to sources familiar with their thinking.
Romo, 27, has appeared in four NFL games -- all last season with the Vikings (11-of-12 on FGs, 7-of-8 on PATs). He finished last year on New England's practice squad.
10. Did you know? Quarterbacks Maye and Milton have a combined cap charge of $9.33 million, which is 3.33% of the team's overall cap. Compared to the league average, that is minus-70.14% at the quarterback position, according to Roster Management System.