Dec 12, 2023
Cook, Bills defence making strides ahead of playoff run
One hurdle has been cleared, but the Bills still have the second-toughest remaining strength of schedule (behind the Baltimore Ravens) as the team prepares to host the Dallas Cowboys (10-3) on Sunday.
ESPN
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BUFFALO, N.Y. -- The setting was all too familiar for the Buffalo Bills. Arrowhead Stadium, where they played the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, is the place where the Bills' 2020 and 2021 postseasons came to an end.
The Bills needed to beat them to keep their playoff hopes for this season alive. The odds were against them as the Chiefs were coming off a defeat and quarterback Patrick Mahomes owned a 10-0 record after a loss since October 2021.
Although they weren't always pretty, the Bills got the 20-17 win. Some season-long issues cropped up again, but there were also bright spots in the performance. And now, despite sitting in 11th place in the AFC due to tiebreakers, the Bills have a 38% to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics.
"Absolutely," center Mitch Morse said after the game when asked if the season was on the line. "Of course, we want to focus on one day at a time, one week at a time, but we understood that to give ourselves the best position we have to kind of take a playoff mentality right now."
One hurdle has been cleared, but the Bills still have the second-toughest remaining strength of schedule (behind the Baltimore Ravens) as the team prepares to host the Dallas Cowboys (10-3) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox). Games at the Los Angeles Chargers, against the New England Patriots and at the Miami Dolphins follow to close out the regular season.
"We've been kind of approaching this as this is the playoffs for us," quarterback Josh Allen said Sunday. "Every game from here on out is that important. And we gotta keep going."
What can the Bills take from the win over the Chiefs that they can work on as their postseason push continues? Let's take a look.
Keeping James Cook heavily involved: The running back showed he deserves to get the ball more regularly. So often this season, the Bills have split opportunities between the team's backs with Latavius Murray starting four games and seeing the field over Cook.
Following what Allen described as "probably [Cook's] best week of practice," the second-year back finished with 141 all-purpose yards, including 10 carries for 58 yards and five receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. He was the team's leading receiver.
"He was awesome. He's been working hard ..." Allen said. "Been getting more comfortable with him catching passes out of the backfield and he had a lot of opportunities, and he took advantage of that."
The Bills have long searched for a running back who could consistently catch the ball and create yards after catch. With interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady taking over three games ago, Cook now has over 11 yards after the catch per reception in each of the last two games. He has put together the best receiving performances of his career in back-to-back games, and that's despite a dropped pass against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 that likely would have resulted in a touchdown.
Under Brady, running backs have been more involved as receivers. During Weeks 1-10 with former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey calling plays, Bills running backs had 40 targets. But under Brady, they've had 23 in three games.
"I hope that it puts a little stress on the defensive coordinators," Brady said. "... I think utilizing those running backs just helps. It opens up paths for the receivers and the tight ends where we're not necessarily one-dimensional and predictable about where the ball's going."
Getting more Stefon Diggs: This is a tricky one. Allen and the wide receiver have struggled to connect recently, with Diggs having four or fewer catches in three of the past four games.
Diggs has not had a 100-yard receiving performance since Oct. 15 and he has not scored a touchdown in three of the last four games. It's not for a lack of targets -- Diggs has 11 targets in each of the last two games.
The nine-year veteran has been incredibly valuable over his four seasons in Buffalo, and stretching the field with him is something the coaching staff would like to do. Only 14 of his 54 targets since Week 8 have gone for 10 air yards or more.
"Obviously we'd love to get Stef going a little more," Brady said. "... He's too good of a football player, he's an elite No. 1 wide receiver. I want him to come out of the game with more than catching bubbles [screens] and stuff like that. But I think some of that is just a product of the way some of that defense has been facing with that and opening up opportunities for other guys."
The other wide receiver to keep an eye on is Gabe Davis. He is set to hit free agency and does not have a catch in three of the last five games. But against the Eagles, he had a huge performance with six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. Are those big-time performances enough to re-sign him for the future?
Defense rises in the fourth quarter: A big mark against the Bills defense this season was its inability to close out fourth quarters consistently.
Following the loss to the Eagles, when the Bills entered the fourth quarter or overtime with a tie or one-score lead, the team ranked 31st in defensive expected points added (EPA) with minus-5.56 and 30th in defensive EPA per play (minus-0.14). In one-score games entering the fourth quarter or overtime, no team in the league allowed more points per game (11) or a higher third-down conversion percentage (62.5%).
And then, against the quarterback with the highest winning percentage when trailing in the fourth quarter in Mahomes, the Bills held the Chiefs to 3 fourth-quarter points and 24 total yards on their final two drives.
When the Chiefs got the ball down three with 1:54 remaining, the Bills were able to protect the lead -- although it did take an offensive offside call on wide receiver Kadarius Toney that brought back a splashy touchdown. Coach Sean McDermott and the coaching staff spent time during the bye week studying two-minute drill trends of both their own team and others to find answers after blowing three leads with less than two minutes remaining. The team had an extra two-minute drill in practice on Wednesday.
"It's kind of cliche, but literally we had a two-minute drill at the end of practice specifically for this moment to close out games...." defensive tackle Ed Oliver said. "And we [were] put in the situation and we won. I think it has a lot to do with practice."
The defense did allow the Chiefs back into the game in the third quarter, despite a 14-7 halftime lead, but with tough offenses still to play, being able to close out a tough game will be a valuable area for the unit to build on moving forward.
"It feels good," safety Jordan Poyer said. "We just want to keep that momentum going forward and be able to close out games."