Kirk Cousins' divorce from the Falcons is expected to be finalized before his $10 million roster bonus is due March 17, with executives across the NFL fully expecting Atlanta to release him by then.

The split between Cousins and the Falcons is inevitable at this point, according to multiple sources.

Front office executives observing the situation have pointed out that, due to the no-trade clause in Cousins' contract, he now has all the leverage. And nobody believes he will do any favors for a Falcons team that surprised him on draft night by selecting another quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., in the first round, then benched him this week in favor of the rookie.

Thus there now is a widespread expectation across the league that the Falcons will not be able to trade Cousins and will have to release him before March 17, when his $10 million roster bonus for the 2026 season comes due. There is no need for the Falcons to absorb any more costs for a quarterback whom they have paid $90 million for 14 games.

Therefore, for the second straight offseason, Cousins is expected to become a free agent, able to choose the team and situation he believes will be best for him.

A Falcons official told ESPN on Saturday morning that it was too early to determine whether the organization would release Cousins. The official added that Penix's relatively low salary cap number for 2025 ($5.2 million) gives the Falcons the financial flexibility to potentially keep Cousins.

But the expectation around the league remains that the Falcons will release Cousins before the roster bonus is due.

The Denver Broncos were in a similar situation last offseason, when Russell Wilson ultimately was released before his $37 million salary for the 2025 season became fully guaranteed. Wilson's guarantee was due on March 17, 2024, exactly one year before Cousins' roster bonus with the Falcons is due.

Wilson signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers worth the veterans minimum at $1.2 million -- similar to the type of contract offers Cousins, 36, would field from other teams if he chooses to play in 2025. Any salary Cousins earns in 2025 would be offset by the $27.5 million owed to him by the Falcons, making him a potential bargain option for next season.

Had the situation in Atlanta been handled differently, in the eyes of executives across the league, the Falcons maybe would have had a chance to work with Cousins to facilitate a trade to another team. But considering the history that has unfolded in recent months, that is not expected to be the case.

Cousins was not informed that the Falcons would draft a quarterback until they called the four-time Pro Bowler while they were on the clock for their first-round pick in April.

This caused frustration and confusion from the Cousins camp, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported on draft night, because Atlanta didn't use the eighth overall pick on a player to support Cousins and make the team better; instead, the Falcons selected a player who could eventually take over for Cousins.

"He got the call on the clock, obviously because of the sensitive time with the issues of what you got going on," Falcons coach Raheem Morris said in April. "It's never a right time to talk to a quarterback about those things, and reactions are always going to be private when it comes to those things, unless Kirk decides to tell you some of those things that are whatever they may be.

"But he's a competitor, just like us all. And you can always expect those things to go just like you kind of think."

The Falcons announced Tuesday that Penix was their starting quarterback "moving forward" with three games remaining this season, sending Cousins to the bench just months after he signed a four-year, $180 million contract that included $100 million guaranteed.

The Falcons might try to see whether there is a way to trade Cousins but would need his cooperation, and nobody across the league expects them to get it, meaning it's only a matter of time before Atlanta will be left with no choice but to release him.

What also makes the move interesting is the perceived shortage of quality quarterbacks available this offseason. Next year's draft is not considered as good or deep at the quarterback position as this year's, and the free agent quarterback class currently is scheduled to include Sam Darnold, Wilson and eventually Cousins.

Teams expected to be in the quarterback market this offseason include the Steelers, Jets, Giants, Raiders, Saints, Browns and Titans. As usual, there aren't enough quarterbacks for everyone.

Morris said Wednesday that the biggest factor in benching Cousins was his turnovers. Cousins has a league-leading 16 interceptions, and his 12 fumbles is tied for the most in the NFL with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.

"There's a standard that I have for myself, that the team has for me, that, unfortunately, I wasn't playing up to that standard consistently enough," Cousins said Wednesday in his first comments since being benched. "And so, it is what it is, and you roll with it and now you still get ready -- 'one play away' kind of a thing -- and support Mike and just try to help our team be able to find a way to win these last three to get in the playoffs, and that's what it's all about."

The Falcons (7-7) are second in the NFC South but own the tiebreaker over the first-place Buccaneers (8-6) and have a 20% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN's Football Power Index projections.

Atlanta hosts the struggling Giants (2-12) on Sunday, when Penix will make his first career start.

Cousins said Wednesday that, despite coming back from a torn Achilles in 2023, he is not injured. As far as beyond this season, he said he will deal with that when the time comes.

"I didn't forget how to play quarterback," he said. "Certainly, turnovers were not what you want, but I didn't forget how to play."

ESPN's Marc Raimondi contributed to this report.